Adam Ozimek asks, “Can Economics Change Your Mind?”
In this skeptical view, economists and those who read economics are locked into ideologically motivated beliefs—liberals versus conservatives, for example—and just pick whatever empirical evidence supports those pre-conceived positions. I say this is wrong and solid empirical evidence, even of the complicated econometric sort, changes plenty of minds.
Just to make myself clear, only a human himself can change his mind, and economics can’t. And since the question is basically about learning, not economics, I reformulate the question accordingly: Can Learning Change Your Mind?
The rest turns out to be simple. If I want to change my mind big time, I take an issue I know nothing about and read some research. There will be surprises.
But if I happen to discover big surprises in the area of my competence, I become suspicious. Evidences don’t drop down like Newtonian apples. They flow like a river. Then learning is a flow, too. It’s a continuous process that brings no surprises if you learn constantly.
Where does continuity come from? First, from discounting new studies. New studies have standard limitations, even being factually and methodologically correct. Most frequent limitations concern long-term relationships, external validity, general equilibrium effects. Second, from the nature of the economy itself. Research in economics often speaks in yes-no terms, while economic processes are continuous. For marketing purposes, researchers formulate questions and answers like “Does X cause Y?”, which is a yes-no question tested with regressions. But causation is not about p-values in handpicked models. Causation is also the degree of impact. But this degree jumps wildly even within different specifications of a single model. That means I need a lot of similar studies to change my mind about X and Y.
Removing one letter from Bertrand Russell, “One of the symptoms of approaching nervous breakdown is the belief that one work is terribly important.”
Going back to Adam’s initial (yes-no) question, I’d say yes, some economists “are locked into ideologically motivated beliefs,” and yes, some economists produce knowledge that other people can learn from. These two groups overlap, but it’s no obstacle to good learning.
PS: In his post, Adam Ozimek also asked to submit studies that changed one’s mind. Since I see mind-changing potential as a function of novelty, I’d recommend a simple source of mind-changing studies: visit RePEc’s top cited studies list and read carefully the papers you haven’t read yet. There will be surprises.